Australia recorded a decline in international student numbers, enrolments, and commencements between January and August 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. The largest declines were in English language courses, known as ELICOS, and vocational education and training, or VET.

If you are planning to study in Australia, these figures can help you understand current education trends. However, a national decline in student numbers does not automatically mean that an individual applicant’s chances of receiving a visa have decreased.

Here is IStudentPlus’s overview of the official Australian Department of Education data.

Key Figures: January–August 2026

The Department of Education reported:

• 738,694 international students, down approximately 8% compared with January–August 2025.

• 866,252 enrolments, down approximately 9%.

• 327,270 commencements, down approximately 12%.

These figures measure different things. Student numbers count individuals, while enrolments count registrations in courses. One student may have more than one enrolment, such as when taking an English language course before progressing to a diploma.

Commencements measure course starts. They do not represent the number of students arriving in Australia for the first time.

Which Education Sectors Experienced the Largest Declines?

The table below compares enrolments for January–August in each year:

VET enrolments decreased by 60,919, while ELICOS enrolments fell by 18,247. Higher education remained relatively stable, recording a decline of 2,306 enrolments.

Comparing the same months helps account for seasonal intake patterns. January–August figures should not be directly compared with full-year totals.

Does This Mean Student Visas Are Harder to Obtain?

Enrolment data alone cannot answer this question.

Education statistics describe study activity. Department of Home Affairs statistics measure different outcomes, including visa applications lodged, visa grants, and grant rates.

A decline in enrolments cannot be used to calculate a visa refusal rate. Subtracting visa grants from applications lodged also does not reveal the number of refusals, because applications and decisions within the same period may relate to different groups of applicants.

Assessing visa trends requires comparable data by citizenship, education sector, applicant location, and reporting period.

What About Students from Indonesia?

The figures in this article cover students from all countries. An Indonesia-specific comparison has not been verified for this overview. The national decline should therefore not be assumed to reflect the same trend among Indonesian students.

Similarly, visa statistics covering all countries or education sectors should not be treated as an individual applicant’s probability of success.

How Should Prospective Students Prepare?

1. Choose a Course That Supports Your Needs and Career Goals

Consider the course content, entry requirements, fees, and practical value of the skills you will gain. Avoid choosing an education sector simply because its enrolment numbers appear more stable.

2. Understand How Your Previous Studies Connect with Your Next Course

Prepare a clear explanation of your course choice, particularly if you are changing fields or pursuing practical training. Your explanation should reflect your personal circumstances and goals.

3. Plan Your Timeline and Budget Realistically

Allow time for English language preparation, academic documents, admission processing, and your visa application. Avoid making travel commitments based on an assumption that your visa will be granted by a particular date.

4. Separate Market Trends from Your Individual Circumstances

Statistics help identify broader trends, but they do not replace an assessment of your documents and the requirements that apply to your situation.

IStudentPlus’s Perspective

In IStudentPlus’s assessment, the declines in VET and ELICOS highlight the importance of careful recruitment and intake planning. However, these figures alone do not explain why enrolments have fallen or indicate that particular courses are unsuitable for Indonesian students.

For prospective students, the priorities remain choosing a suitable course, preparing academically and financially, and understanding the purpose of the proposed studies.

Planning to study in Australia? The IStudentPlus team can help you compare courses, understand admission requirements, and prepare a study plan that suits your needs.